• Thu. May 23rd, 2024

BTC’s Price to Decline around Halving – Arthur Hayes

Steve Kornacki

BySteve Kornacki

Apr 9, 2024
BTC's Price to Decline around Halving - Arthur Hayes

BTC’s Price Action Around Halving

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a prominent figure in cryptocurrency, has shared his insights about BTC’s price as the halving date draws closer. Despite widespread optimism among many experts that the halving will trigger a significant rally for BTC, Hayes disagrees.

Hayes attributes his contrarian view to the popular narrative that when most market participants align towards a particular outcome, the opposite tends to occur. He anticipates that this prevailing sentiment could lead to a slump in BTC and crypto prices around the halving time.

The USD Liquidity And Crypto Prices

One of the key factors contributing to Hayes’ projection is the state of United States dollar (USD) liquidity during the halving period. He predicts that USD’s liquidity will be tighter than usual around the estimated halving date.

This factor, coupled with the prevailing narrative, could fuel a “firesale” of crypto assets. As a result, Hayes has chosen to abstain from trading until May, stating that there’s a need to tread cautiously during this period.

Hayes added that there were significant events on April 15 and May 1 that would significantly impact the USD liquidity. The 2023 tax year payments deadline is April 15, while the Federal Reserve meeting is on May 1.

Many anticipate a reduction in the Fed’s rate of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Hayes believes that this reduction in QT will lead to a return of liquidity which would positively impact digital assets’ prices.

Bitcoin’s Resilience Amidst Predictions of Short-Term Volatility

In light of Hayes’ prediction, it’s essential to consider the potential implications for the broader cryptocurrency market. Despite the short-term price volatility anticipated by Hayes, the halving event signifies a fundamental change in the Bitcoin network.

With fewer new BTCs entering circulation post-halving, the selling pressure on existing coins could decrease over time. However, the reduced issuance rate enhances Bitcoin’s scarcity, a fundamental characteristic that drives long-term price appreciation.

Hayes Transfers Over $1 Million In GMX Tokens to Centralized Exchanges

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that Hayes has reportedly initiated a transfer of more than $1 million worth of GMX tokens to centralized exchanges. This transaction was highlighted by pseudonymous on-chain analyst EmberCN, who disclosed that Hayes owns the largest personal address among GMX holders since 2022.

The transfer, executed on Sunday, saw Hayes move his entire holding of 237,000 GMX tokens, valued at $9.78 million, to a newly created address. Subsequently, he sent 41,000 GMX tokens, equivalent to $1.68 million, from this new address to prominent centralized exchanges, including Binance, OKX, and Bybit.

Speculation About the Transferred GMX Tokens

Speculation arises regarding the destination of the transferred tokens, with the newly created address believed to be affiliated with the algorithmic digital asset trading firm Wintermute. According to EmberCN, this address received gas from Wintermute, suggesting a partnership or arrangement involving Hayes’ GMX holdings for either sale or over-the-counter (OTC) trading.

Crypto analytics firm Arkham corroborates Hayes’s GMX token transaction and further reveals that he acquired each token at approximately $45. However, GMX’s price has declined since then, trading at $39.11 at the time of writing and down over 49% from its all-time high, set nearly one year ago.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki, a respected author at Big Trends Signals, uses his deep online trading acumen to create comprehensive guides and balanced reviews, empowering traders in their digital pursuits.

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